Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 22.875116 27.464546 32.532739 38.517022 45.360765 52.913758 61.849501
2025-02-23 15.899211 21.829091 29.073436 38.450717 50.132905 64.067034 81.790485
2025-03-02 11.721555 17.954916 26.207536 37.668158 52.875418 72.046590 97.684486
2025-03-09 9.190975 15.496023 24.439644 37.607085 55.991753 80.200558 113.849120
2025-03-16 6.828895 12.696797 21.614242 35.509106 55.866921 83.777375 123.956217
2025-03-23 5.824724 11.737616 21.237670 36.715724 60.249734 93.513228 142.664759
2025-03-30 4.690151 10.302041 19.861911 36.168034 61.904920 99.398291 156.234317
2025-04-06 4.189392 9.874275 20.025150 37.975598 67.138692 110.614297 177.801635
2025-04-13 3.130418 8.139960 17.679774 35.384307 65.261855 111.153868 183.850075
2025-04-20 2.698999 7.570549 17.310593 36.044375 68.544554 119.546694 201.767064
2025-04-27 2.371148 7.147840 17.143403 37.010257 72.349587 128.882675 221.450551
2025-05-04 2.120640 6.843723 17.155543 38.276685 76.707169 139.251885 243.091371
2025-05-11 1.822514 6.396294 16.908046 39.222097 80.915161 150.138384 266.914307
2025-05-18 1.480871 5.739289 16.125663 39.086109 83.278523 158.288481 287.057534
2025-05-25 1.163775 5.031496 15.088138 38.289045 84.336668 164.279398 303.969197
2025-06-01 0.947954 4.543266 14.458005 38.226917 86.702099 172.538195 324.849588
2025-06-08 0.685618 3.772571 12.963569 36.100880 84.920937 173.504766 333.681031
2025-06-15 0.599659 3.604302 12.987674 37.323663 89.732986 186.219560 362.634138
2025-06-22 0.471241 3.198276 12.277995 36.768648 90.930403 192.524123 380.934861
2025-06-29 0.429119 3.147732 12.568935 38.600309 97.104632 208.085096 415.661259
2025-07-06 0.292505 2.554049 11.104318 35.974401 93.794858 206.077067 419.813098
2025-07-13 0.246967 2.399373 10.967732 36.643332 97.502251 217.259319 447.484069
2025-07-20 0.213108 2.288995 10.952935 37.622127 101.938306 229.993837 478.326025